For all who know me personally, know I have a passion for collecting sneakers. I have a modest collection of about 45 pairs, ranging from brands such as Nike, Adidas, New Balance, ASICS, and Puma. Most of the sneakers I have purchased are what I would consider "art pieces" as I tend to gravitate toward designs that are rare or feature unique, or unconventional colorways.
While about 74% of my collection currently consists of Nike and Adidas, I have noticed a telling trend lately. My last few purchases have all been from either New Balance or ASICS. This is no coincidence. So, I decided to dig into the data, and it turns out the sneaker world is mirroring my personal shift. We are witnessing a massive rebalancing of power in the footwear industry.
The Data Behind the Shift
If we look at the numbers from 2020 to 2024, the incumbents like Nike and Adidas are facing a momentum crisis, while the challengers are experiencing a golden age.
Nike’s Stalling Engine: Nike remains the undisputed king in volume, but their growth has hit a plateau. In 2024, they hit a wall with near-flat revenue growth. Their stock price faced significant pressure as brand heat cooled.
The Rise of the Underdogs: New Balance has seen staggering 20% annual growth for four consecutive years, reaching $7.8 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, ASICS has recorded record profits. Their "SportStyle" lifestyle category surged by over 50% in recent quarterly reports.
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| Global sneaker market revenue 2020-2024 |
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| Global Sneaker Growth Momentum |
The graphs above tell two different stories: Scale vs. Momentum.
Scale: Nike and Adidas are still massive, earning 5–10x more than their rivals.
Momentum: New Balance and ASICS are growing 2–5x faster, effectively stealing market share and "cool factor" from the giants.
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| Global Revenue Growth by Brand (USD) |
The Innovation Gap: Why Nike is Stagnating
I see three main reasons why the giant is stumbling:
Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Overreach: Nike cut ties with many local boutiques to force sales through their own apps. This left a physical void on store shelves. New Balance and ASICS were happy to fill that space.
Franchise Fatigue: Nike relied too heavily on the "Big Three", which are the Dunk, Jordan 1, and Air Force 1. By flooding the market with endless colorways, they accidentally killed the scarcity that made these shoes art pieces.
The Performance Exodus: Serious athletes are moving to niche brands. When the pro runner switches to ASICS for better tech, the lifestyle consumer follows the cool factor of that performance authenticity.
The New Balance Playbook: How to Build Heat
New Balance’s rise is a masterclass in strategic brand repositioning. Their momentum is a calculated mix of these 4 factors:
1. Collaborations (The Catalyst: 40%)
New Balance didn't just slap a logo on a shoe; they gave creative control to tastemakers who deeply understood street culture.
- Teddy Santis (Aimé Leon Dore): He single-handedly made the "550" the "it" shoe of 2021–2023, replacing the Nike Dunk in fashion circles.
- Joe Freshgoods: He brought storytelling and color that resonated with a younger, diverse audience that previously viewed NB as "boring."
- Action Bronson/Salehe Bembury: They proved the brand could be weird, loud, and hype-worthy.
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| One of the pairs in my collection, Salehe Bembury x New Balance 2002R "Water Be The Guide" |
- The "Dad Shoe" Wave: The market shifted toward "Normcore" and "Gorpcore" (functional, slightly chunky, comfortable gear). New Balance didn't have to invent a fake trend; they owned this heritage.
- Right Place, Right Time: When skinny jeans died and baggy pants returned, chunky New Balance silhouettes (like the 9060, 2002R, and 990) naturally looked better with the new fashion silhouette than sleek Nikes.
- Retention: Hype gets you a customer once; comfort keeps them. The "Fresh Foam" and "FuelCell" technologies are genuinely respected by runners.
- Made in USA/UK: In an era of cheap manufacturing, their "Made in USA" line (marketed as premium quality at a higher price point) creates a "luxury" halo that justifies the hype.
"We Got Now": Their marketing didn't try to make New Balance look "cool" in a forced way. Instead, they leaned into their identity ("worn by supermodels in London and dads in Ohio").
Athlete Selection: Signing Shohei Ohtani, Coco Gauff, and Kawhi Leonard signaled they were still a serious sports brand, not just a fashion house.
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| My latest pick up: New Balance 740 |
Final Thoughts
As a collector, I am drawn to the newness and superior comfort of my ASICS Gel-Kayano and my New Balance 740. As a researcher, I see a market that is no longer satisfied with brand heritage alone. It wants innovation, quality, and a sense of discovery.
The sneaker industry is no longer a two-horse race. It is a diverse ecosystem where the niche brands are becoming the new mainstream. My next purchase probably will not have a Swoosh or Three Stripes on it. Based on the data, yours might not either.
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